Forecasts and predictions

Political scientists are sometimes expected to predict elections (and maybe other political events). And there's often some comment if pollsters (are seen to) get it wrong. But making predictions about the future is difficult.

One comparison might be to sports pundits. Out of 30 BBC pundits, no one predicted Liverpool winning the Premier League last season, for example. Another might be to weather forecasting. There's an interesting piece about that on the BBC. Weather forecasting is getting more accurate. And it seems that AI might be improving things further, though there's a cautionary note that models based on the past may fail to predict unprecedented events.

Disrespecting a game

Luke Maring has an interesting article (here) on the obligation to vote. He argues that democratic citizens have a role-based obligation to vote, since failing to do so would disrespect democracy. And he motivates the idea that it's wrong to disrespect a practice with an example of a basketballer. (I forget the exact details of the case.)

I was reminded of this today, when I saw this article about Memphis Depay, in which the Brazilian Football Federation (CBF) is reported to have issued a letter saying that standing on the football is "provocation to a rival and disrespects the game."

I assume this was in Portuguese, so not sure how easy it would be to track down the original, but it's an interesting example (for those with more interest in football than basketball, at least).